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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to TEN 38 for 4 yards (26-M.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.42 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model