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New York Jets

2-4 HC Aaron Glenn
@
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New England Patriots

4-2 HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ
10.4%
NE
89.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Geno Smith (NYJ): -0.124 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 16 9–23
–
NE 29 22–36
Projected margin: NE by 13 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

NYJ

Joseph Ossai DE Out Ankle
Dylan Parham G Out Knee
Breece Hall RB Out Quadricep
Adonai Mitchell WR Out Finger
Dane Belton S Questionable Knee
Kenyon Sadiq TE Questionable Concussion
Omar Cooper Jr. WR Questionable Ankle

NE

Carlton Davis III CB Out Neck
Karon Prunty CB Out Hamstring
A.J. Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Christian Elliss LB Questionable Chest
Marcus Bryant T Questionable Ankle
Will Campbell T Questionable Knee
Craig Woodson S Questionable Shoulder
TreVeyon Henderson RB Questionable Ankle
Channing Canada CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 19
–
NE 26

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:21 FG NYJ (8:21) 19-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 3 – NE 0
  • Q1 04:18 TD NE (4:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-87-R.Doubs was injured during the play. NYJ 3 – NE 6
  • Q2 01:49 FG NE (1:49) 8-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. NYJ 3 – NE 10
  • Q2 00:20 TD NE (:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – NE 16
  • Q3 10:32 TD NYJ (10:32) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-O.Cooper for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – NE 17
  • Q3 04:50 FG NYJ (4:50) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 13 – NE 17
  • Q4 14:13 TD NE (14:13) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – NE 23
  • Q4 07:24 FG NYJ (7:24) 19-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 16 – NE 23
  • Q4 01:14 FG NE (1:14) 8-A.Borregales 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. NYJ 16 – NE 26
  • Q4 00:36 FG NYJ (:36) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 19 – NE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 18% p(FG) 90%

    (8:21) 19-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:48) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to NYJ 20, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (14:22) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to NE 29 for 1 yard (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to NYJ 3, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-49-E.Hunter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 64%

    (7:00) 7-G.Smith up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (50-G.Jacas). (Virtual Measurement).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 32%

    (5:15) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (1:49) 8-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:29) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to NE 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 62%

    (11:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 1-A.Brown (21-B.Stephens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (4:50) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (7:24) 19-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:14) 8-A.Borregales 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →