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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 57

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to NYJ 3, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-49-E.Hunter.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.93 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP