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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 24

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 19-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 18% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 82% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model