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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 14

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 8-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.11 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP