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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 30

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to NE 29 for 1 yard (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.06 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model