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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 52

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.90 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model