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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 22

New York Jets 13 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 19-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.02 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model