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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to NYJ 20, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.20 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP