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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 18

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model