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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 39

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 7-G.Smith up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (50-G.Jacas). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model