4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 70

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to NE 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model