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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 40

New England Patriots 17 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 1-A.Brown (21-B.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.81 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model