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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 9

New England Patriots 23 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 8-A.Borregales 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.74 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model