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Best Bets — Week 10

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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BUF @

NYJ

Model: BUF 77.2% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

LA @

ARI

Model: LA 76.2% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

MIN @

Model: GB 70.1% · strong edge

MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

LAC @

BAL

Model: BAL 69.0% · clear edge

LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

PIT @

CIN

Model: CIN 66.8% · clear edge

QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.209 vs Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.105 EPA/dropback

JAX @

TEN

Model: JAX 64.6% · clear edge

QB edge to JAX: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.072 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.284 EPA/dropback

MIA @

IND

Model: IND 62.2% · clear edge

Daniel Jones (IND): -0.158 EPA/dropback in prior starts