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Best Bets — Week 15

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

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MIA @

Model: GB 75.0% · strong edge

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

CHI @

BUF

Model: BUF 73.4% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

CLE @

NYG

Model: NYG 71.0% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

NYJ @

ARI

Model: ARI 65.9% · clear edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

DAL @

Model: LA 65.2% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)