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Best Bets — Week 11

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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MIA @

BUF

Model: BUF 82.6% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

LV @

DEN

Model: DEN 81.2% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

NYJ @

LAC

Model: LAC 79.7% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

TEN @

DAL

Model: DAL 72.4% · strong edge

DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

ARI @

Model: KC 69.7% · clear edge

KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

NO @

CHI

Model: CHI 68.4% · clear edge

CHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

PIT @

PHI

Model: PHI 67.1% · clear edge

PHI offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

IND @

HOU

Model: HOU 63.4% · clear edge

HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

TB @

DET

Model: DET 62.7% · clear edge

QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.123 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.083 EPA/dropback