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Best Bets — Week 4

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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NYJ @

CHI

Model: CHI 79.6% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

LAC @

SEA

Model: SEA 77.7% · strong edge

SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

TEN @

BAL

Model: BAL 76.1% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

NE @

BUF

Model: BUF 67.0% · clear edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

MIA @

MIN

Model: MIN 64.6% · clear edge

MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

DEN @

Model: SF 62.9% · clear edge

SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

GB @

Model: GB 62.7% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

ARI @

NYG

Model: NYG 62.2% · clear edge

ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)