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Los Angeles Chargers

0-4 HC Jim Harbaugh
@
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Seattle Seahawks

3-1 HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:25 ET Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LAC
22.3%
SEA
77.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Drew Lock (SEA) -0.018 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.099 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 19 12–26
–
SEA 25 18–32
Projected margin: SEA by 6 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

LAC

Dalvin Tomlinson DT Out Hamstring
Kayode Awosika G Out Fibula
Charlie Kolar TE Out Forearm
Brenen Thompson WR Out Quadricep
Donte Jackson CB Questionable Concussion
Derwin James S Questionable Hamstring
Elijah Molden S Questionable Hamstring
Trey Lance QB Questionable Groin
Ladd McConkey WR Questionable Foot

SEA

Zach Charbonnet RB Out Knee
Jadarian Price RB Out Chest
Chazz Surratt LB Questionable Calf
Ty Okada S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 23
–
SEA 30

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:58 FG LAC (11:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – SEA 0
  • Q1 10:03 TD SEA (10:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 23-E.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 06:19 TD SEA (6:19) 22-R.Shaheed left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – SEA 13
  • Q2 00:47 TD SEA (:47) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – SEA 19
  • Q2 00:05 FG LAC (:05) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – SEA 20
  • Q3 10:26 TD SEA (10:26) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – SEA 26
  • Q3 04:58 TD LAC (4:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-K.Vidal for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The touchdown was assisted by replay. LAC 12 – SEA 27
  • Q3 01:22 FG SEA (1:22) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LAC 13 – SEA 30
  • Q4 07:52 TD LAC (7:52) 8-O.Hampton left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – SEA 30
  • Q4 02:17 FG LAC (2:17) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 23 – SEA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (11:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:20) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 19 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for no gain (57-C.O'Toole). PENALTY on SEA-57-C.O'Toole, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 18.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 48%

    (2:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:12) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:20) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on SEA-1-J.Neal, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 40.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 45%

    (11:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LAC 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:30) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 19 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (3:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 12 yards (32-K.Williamson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 30 yards to LAC 26, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-30-A.Finley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (5:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to SEA 9 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (1:22) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 40%

    (4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-1-J.Neal.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 90 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston to SEA 46 for 44 yards (24-R.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →