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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.46 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model