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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model