Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.72 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model