4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.74 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model