Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for no gain (57-C.O'Toole). PENALTY on SEA-57-C.O'Toole, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model