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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model