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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 12 yards (32-K.Williamson).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.36 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model