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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.61 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model