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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 30 yards to LAC 26, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-30-A.Finley.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.44 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP