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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model