Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on SEA-1-J.Neal, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.93 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model