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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.94 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP