Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 90

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 30

(3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston to SEA 46 for 44 yards (24-R.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.74 EP
60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 90, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.83 EP