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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to SEA 9 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams].

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.29 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model