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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-1-J.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model