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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 46

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LAC 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model