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Green Bay Packers

2-2 HC Matt LaFleur
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-4 HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

GB
62.7%
TB
37.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jalon Daniels (TB) -0.194 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.128 EPA/dropback (TB starting Jalon Daniels in place of Baker Mayfield)
  • TB defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • GB on 3 more days rest than TB

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 26 19–33
–
TB 20 13–27
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

GB

Aaron Banks G Out Knee
Jacob Monk C Out Quadricep
Warren Brinson DT Out Calf
Anthony Campbell DT Out Ankle
Edgerrin Cooper LB Questionable Shoulder
Jager Burton C Questionable Groin

TB

Baker Mayfield QB Out Thumb
Ko Kieft TE Out Elbow
Benjamin Morrison CB Out Quadricep
Rueben Bain Jr. LB Out Groin
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Questionable Ankle
SirVocea Dennis LB Questionable Calf
Jacob Parrish CB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 17
–
TB 14

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:58 TD GB (12:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – TB 0
  • Q2 05:17 TD TB (5:17) 44-S.Tucker left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – TB 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG GB (:02) 28-T.Smack 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 10 – TB 7
  • Q3 10:39 TD GB (10:39) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith). Green Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – TB 7
  • Q4 14:57 TD TB (14:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – TB 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 50%

    (10:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to TB 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 84%

    (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 18 for 10 yards (22-K.Scott).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to TB 6 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

    (12:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 24, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to TB 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-42-M.Orzech.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 93%

    (6:45) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to GB 11 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to TB 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 48%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to GB 41 for 4 yards (2-B.Cisse).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to GB 30, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to GB 38 for 8 yards (19-K.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:30) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to TB 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Johnson to TB 16 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%

    (1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams].

    See the full breakdown →