4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to GB 11 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model