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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to TB 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-42-M.Orzech.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model