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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 18 for 10 yards (22-K.Scott).

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.10 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model