Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 24, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +3.10 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model