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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 9

Green Bay Packers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to TB 6 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.33 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model