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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP