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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to GB 41 for 4 yards (2-B.Cisse).

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model