Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(6:30) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to TB 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Johnson to TB 16 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.59 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model