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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to GB 30, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to GB 38 for 8 yards (19-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model