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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to TB 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP