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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams].

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.51 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.58 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model