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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 2

Green Bay Packers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.64 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.69 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model