4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to TB 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP