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Tennessee Titans

0-4 HC Robert Saleh
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Baltimore Ravens

3-1 HC Jesse Minter
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

TEN
23.9%
BAL
76.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Cam Ward (TEN): -0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.064 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18 11–25
–
BAL 27 20–34
Projected margin: BAL by 9 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Tyjae Spears RB Questionable Ankle
Kevin Winston Jr. S Questionable Shoulder

BAL

Ethan Pocic C Out Knee
Trey Hendrickson LB Out Finger
Jovaughn Gwyn C Out Ankle
Chris Moore WR Questionable Ankle
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Toe
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 18
–
BAL 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:13 TD BAL (12:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 06:01 TD TEN (6:01) 20-T.Pollard right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – BAL 7
  • Q2 12:22 TD BAL (12:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – BAL 13
  • Q2 03:36 TD BAL (3:36) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – BAL 20
  • Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 33-T.Loop 64 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. TEN 7 – BAL 24
  • Q3 06:55 FG TEN (6:55) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. TEN 10 – BAL 24
  • Q4 01:16 TD TEN (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – BAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (12:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 18 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:35) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 30 for 20 yards (80-D.Smythe). PENALTY on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 15.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:17) 3-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (8:20) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-T.Pollard. 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (1:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-56-T.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:05) 30-R.Eckley punts 51 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:48) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (6:55) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 37%

    (3:44) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 14 for 10 yards (85-J.Cuevas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:10) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester to BAL 43 for 11 yards (36-J.Chestnut; 38-T.Burgess). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (:11) 30-R.Eckley punts 38 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 22 for no gain (41-E.Hallett).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:25) 30-R.Eckley punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at BAL 25.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (3:24) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 68%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 3 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks) [15-M.Green].

    See the full breakdown →